Five Pre-Election Day Predictions for Animal Rights

Trump will win. Pro-animal ballot initiatives will lose. But animals will still come out on top in the long run.

Exactly one year ago today, I was sitting in a jail cell in Sonoma County after being convicted of felony conspiracy for organizing a mass open rescue at Sunrise Farms, a major egg producer for Costco and Whole Foods. I was put in prison by a Democratic judge, who was appointed by a Democratic governor, and prosecuted by a Democratic prosecutor. After recently winning two straight acquittals in conservative counties, we “lost” a trial in a county that went 75% for Biden in 2020. In court, the Democratic authorities in Sonoma County unconstitutionally gagged me from sharing the story of Qing, a dying bird we saved from an illegal battery cage at Sunrise Farms. 

What happened? 

Check out my debate with Vegan Gains on whether the Presidential election matters for animal rights.

I’ve written previously about six tactical reasons for the conviction in Sonoma County. But there is an underlying seismic shift in American politics that is arguably more important than anything that happened in the courtroom: the Democratic Party has become the party of the economic elite.

The Atlantic recently described this shift: 

Democrats now represent 24 of the 25 highest-income congressional districts and 43 of the top 50 counties by economic output… Among white voters, in every presidential election from 1948 until 2012, the richest 5 percent were the group most likely to vote Republican, according to analysis by the political scientist Thomas Wood. In 2016 and 2020, this dynamic reversed itself: The top 5 percent became the group most likely to vote Democratic. [my emphasis]

Given this shift, it should come as no surprise that the Democratic Party in California and Colorado have rallied to defend the largest animal-abusing corporations in the nation.

What Democratic leaders fail to understand, however, is that its alliance with the economic elite will backfire. As the French economist Thomas Piketty has said, 

I see people who are very upset against Trump… But if the Democratic Party wants to be able one day to regain the confidence of socially disadvantaged voters, they will have to be a bit less self-confident in the idea that they have done everything right. 

I am living proof of Piketty’s point. I went into the Sonoma Rescue Trial as a dissatisfied but still Democratic voter. I came out of jail transformed: politically homeless and distraught by the Democratic Party’s willingness to do the bidding of large corporations. There are millions of others who feel similarly betrayed by the Democratic Party, and that leads me to my first election day prediction. 

Prediction 1: Donald Trump wins the Presidential election, but, in the long run, this strengthens the movement for animal rights. 

Polls and election forecasts show a tight race. But one metric above all others leads me to the conclusion that Trump will win: Only 28% of the voters think the nation is headed in the right direction. No party in American history has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country’s future.

Here is the silver lining. A Trump victory will lead to a reassessment within the Democratic Party of its alliance with the economic elite. And it will provoke a backlash by the genuine progressives, against both Trump and the corporate wing of the party. The New York Times’ Nate Cohn recently wrote, “Oddly, it is easiest to imagine a reinvigorated liberalism if Mr. Trump wins the presidency, and refuels the tank of anti-Trump fervor once more.” This reinvigorated liberalism will strengthen the movement for animals. 

Prediction 2: Pro-animal ballot initiatives lose in California and Colorado — but the movement “loses forward” from these defeats. 

The factory farms of Sonoma County will survive - for now.

For the first time in animal rights history, ballot initiatives in California and Colorado strike at the heart of Big Ag. In Sonoma County, California, Measure J seeks to ban factory farms. In Denver, Colorado, Ordinance 309 seeks to ban slaughterhouses. I predict that both initiatives will lose decisively – and a primary culprit will be the Democratic Party. In California, the party illegally removed language from the ballot initiative describing its purpose. In Colorado, the party smeared animal rights activists as “racist.” In both cases, voters’ faith in the Democratic Party will be an insurmountable obstacle to challenging the party’s alliance with the economic elite.

Once again, however, there is a silver lining. The Democratic Party’s regressive efforts to crush grassroots progress will backfire over the long run. The animal rights movement will harness the narrative of a corrupt Democratic machine to inspire even more citizens to support nonviolent direct action. And over the long term, this movement for direct action will build even more power for animal rights – including shutting down factory farms and slaughterhouses in Sonoma County and Denver. 

Prediction 3: New, young legislators are elected into office and make animal rights a growing priority. 

While the animal rights movement’s ballot initiatives will fail, its people will win. A number of vegans are running for office in state legislatures in Colorado, Florida, and Rhode Island. Max Planck argued that change happens, not through persuasion, but because the old guard is eventually replaced by fresh blood. This election will be the first that introduces into office new, young legislators with deep commitments to animal rights. This development will eventually be seen as far more important for animals than whatever happens on the national ticket.

Prediction 4: National political parties suffer a catastrophic loss in trust. New political organizations soon fill the gap.  

On both the right and the left, our nation’s political parties are facing a catastrophic decline in trust. Daron Acemoglu, the most recent Nobel Prize winner in economics, has written about how these trust spirals cause entire nations to fail. And the problem is not any particular candidate or party but the fundamentally broken nature of modern representative politics. The people of this country are feeling deceived, used, and left out of the process of governance. 

In 2019, climate protests erupted across the globe. The failure of institutional politics in 2024 will lead to a resurgence in grassroots protest.

In the next 4 years, we will see a global rise in new political structures, focused on bottom-up models of decision-making. And many of the organizations that are born from this new political culture will focus on defending the interests of those who are powerless, including animal rights. 

Prediction 5: This is the last Presidential election where animal rights is ignored. 

In 2019, Cory Booker was asked about his personal veganism in a Presidential debate and gave an embarrassing response. In 2024, animals have played a surprising role in the Presidential campaign – most recently, in the unlawful seizure and killing of Peanut the squirrel – but with no explicit discussion of animal rights. That will change.

The political system’s largest failing is its failure to earn trust. And animal rights has a key role in solving this problem. After all, whom do we trust less than someone who kicks their own dog? And whom do we trust more than someone who goes out of their way to help a stray animal in distress? Animal rights is a necessary and sufficient condition for a political system to build trust. It is the only way the system can survive the law of social entropy that otherwise sends all forms of social organization into oblivion.

By 2028, animals like Qing, the little hen we found trapped in an illegal battery cage at Sunrise Farms, will have finally gotten their day in court. (Our appeal in the Sonoma case will reach oral argument in the next few months.) And when Qing’s story is told, no one — not even Presidential candidates — will be able to deny her right to live free from violence.

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What’s up this week?

• The Interview - one of the flagship podcasts of The New York Times - featured Animal Liberation author Peter Singer this week. It’s appropriate and interesting that the last podcast before the election is focused on animal rights. And I was stunned to hear the strength of Singer’s statements in the conversation, including that we should all be drawing a “hard line” by refusing to eat with those who are serving a turkey this Thanksgiving. Check out the conversation here.

• I and Justin Marceau appeared on the Animal Law Podcast to discuss the Tracy Murphy/Asha trial. If you want to geek out on the technical aspects of that case, and on the strange psychology of arguing for animals in a pro-ag, pro-police region of the country, check it out.

• Advancing Law for Animals won a $300,000 settlement from the police in the case of Cedar, the goat taken from a little girl and slaughtered by the state fair. But this is just the first step in the process, as the defendants who actually killed Cedar have not yet been held liable. The New York Times has the story.

• Let me know if you’re interested in joining a pro-animal Zoom election party. If we get enough interest, I might host something!

Let me end today’s newsletter, given the uncertain times, by saying that I am grateful to all of you for reading and supporting my work. None of us can predict the future, and there are grave dangers to the future of all life on the horizon. However, it’s meeting and talking to people like you that has given me confidence, even in the face of those obstacles, that our species and planet are on a good path. Thank you for caring, and for the support.